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Paddy J Horner - Top 30 Publications

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis Infections Clear More Slowly in Men Than Women, but Are Less Likely to Become Established.

Rigorous estimates for clearance rates of untreated chlamydia infections are important for understanding chlamydia epidemiology and designing control interventions, but were previously only available for women.

Chlamydia trachomatis Incidence Using Self-Reports and Serology by Gender, Age Period, and Sexual Behavior in a Birth Cohort.

Although understanding chlamydia incidence assists prevention and control, analyses based on diagnosed infections may distort the findings. Therefore, we determined incidence and examined risks in a birth cohort based on self-reports and serology.

Risk of reproductive complications following chlamydia testing.

2016 European guideline on the management of non-gonococcal urethritis published.

Proportion of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease Cases Caused by Chlamydia trachomatis: Consistent Picture From Different Methods.

Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is a leading cause of both tubal factor infertility and ectopic pregnancy. Chlamydia trachomatis is an important risk factor for PID, but the proportion of PID cases caused by C. trachomatis is unclear. Estimates of this are required to evaluate control measures.

The natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis.

The evidence base supporting the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, initiated in 2003, has been questioned repeatedly, with little consensus on modelling assumptions, parameter values or evidence sources to be used in cost-effectiveness analyses. The purpose of this project was to assemble all available evidence on the prevalence and incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in the UK and its sequelae, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy (EP) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) to review the evidence base in its entirety, assess its consistency and, if possible, arrive at a coherent set of estimates consistent with all the evidence.

An observational study to evaluate three pilot programmes of retesting chlamydia-positive individuals within 6 months in the South West of England.

To evaluate 3 pilot chlamydia retesting programmes in South West England which were initiated prior to the release of new National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) guidelines recommending retesting in 2014.

Which sexually active young female students are most at risk of pelvic inflammatory disease? A prospective study.

To identify risk factors for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) in female students.

Risk of pelvic inflammatory disease following Chlamydia trachomatis infection: analysis of prospective studies with a multistate model.

Our objective in this study was to estimate the probability that a Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection will cause an episode of clinical pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and the reduction in such episodes among women with CT that could be achieved by annual screening. We reappraised evidence from randomized controlled trials of screening and controlled observational studies that followed untreated CT-infected and -uninfected women to measure the development of PID. Data from these studies were synthesized using a continuous-time Markov model which takes into account the competing risk of spontaneous clearance of CT. Using a 2-step piecewise homogenous Markov model that accounts for the distinction between prevalent and incident infections, we investigated the possibility that the rate of PID due to CT is greater during the period immediately following infection. The available data were compatible with both the homogenous and piecewise homogenous models. Given a homogenous model, the probability that a CT episode will cause clinical PID was 0.16 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.06, 0.25), and annual screening would prevent 61% (95% CrI: 55, 67) of CT-related PID in women who became infected with CT. Assuming a piecewise homogenous model with a higher rate during the first 60 days, corresponding results were 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.07, 0.26) and 55% (95% CrI: 32, 72), respectively.

Chlamydia screening, retesting and repeat diagnoses in Cornwall, UK 2003-2009.

This study aims to describe the patterns of testing and retesting for chlamydia in Cornwall during the first 5 years of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. We evaluate the factors associated with retesting and estimate the incidence of chlamydia diagnosis and repeat diagnosis.

Mixture-of-exponentials models to explain heterogeneity in studies of the duration of Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

Published studies of the duration of asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women have produced diverse estimates, and most reviewers have not attempted an evidence synthesis. We review the designs of duration studies, distinguishing between the incident cases presenting soon after infection in clinic-based studies and prevalent cases ascertained in population screening studies. We combine evidence from all studies under fixed-effect (single clearance rate), random-effect (study-specific clearance rate), and mixture-of-exponentials models, in which there are either two or three classes of infection that clear at different rates. We can identify classes as 'passive' infection and fast-clearing and slow-clearing infections. We estimate models by Bayesian MCMC and compared them using posterior mean residual deviance and the deviance information criterion. The single fixed-effect clearance rate model fitted very poorly. The random-effect model was adequate but inferior to the two-class and three-class mixture of exponentials. According to the two-class model, the proportion in the first class was 23% (95% CI: 16-31%), and the mean duration of C. trachomatis infection is 1.36 years (95% CI: 1.13-1.63 years). With the three-rate model, duration was similar, but identification of the proportions in each class (19%, 31%, and 49%) was poor. Although the random-effect model was descriptively adequate, the extreme degree of between-study variation in the clearance rate it predicted lacked biological plausibility. Differences in study recruitment and sampling mechanisms, acting through a mixture-of-exponentials model, better explains the apparent heterogeneity in duration.

How much tubal factor infertility is caused by Chlamydia? Estimates based on serological evidence corrected for sensitivity and specificity.

To estimate the proportion of tubal factor infertility (TFI) caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), the etiologic fraction, from a retrospective study of CT antibody prevalence in TFI cases and controls, adjusted for sensitivity and specificity.

Azithromycin antimicrobial resistance and genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection: duration of therapy may be the key to improving efficacy.

Chlamydia trachomatis infection increases fallopian tube PROKR2 via TLR2 and NFκB activation resulting in a microenvironment predisposed to ectopic pregnancy.

Chlamydia trachomatis and smoking are major risk factors for tubal ectopic pregnancy (EP), but the underlying mechanisms of these associations are not completely understood. Fallopian tube (FT) from women with EP exhibit altered expression of prokineticin receptors 1 and 2 (PROKR1 and PROKR2); smoking increases FT PROKR1, resulting in a microenvironment predisposed to EP. We hypothesize that C. trachomatis also predisposes to EP by altering FT PROKR expression and have investigated this by examining NFκB activation via ligation of the Toll-like receptor (TLR) family of cell-surface pattern recognition receptors. PROKR2 mRNA was higher in FT from women with evidence of past C. trachomatis infection than in those without (P < 0.05), and was also increased in FT explants and in oviductal epithelial cell line OE-E6/E7 infected with C. trachomatis (P < 0.01) or exposed to UV-killed organisms (P < 0.05). The ability of both live and dead organisms to induce this effect suggests ligation of a cell-surface-expressed receptor. FT epithelium and OE-E6/E7 were both found to express TLR2 and TLR4 by immunohistochemistry. Transfection of OE-E6/E7 cells with dominant-negative TLR2 or IκBα abrogated the C. trachomatis-induced PROKR2 expression. We propose that ligation of tubal TLR2 and activation of NFκB by C. trachomatis leads to increased tubal PROKR2, thereby predisposing the tubal microenvironment to ectopic implantation.