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Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

Abstract Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.
PMID
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Authors

Mayor MeshTerms

Climate Change

Keywords
Journal Title plos neglected tropical diseases
Publication Year Start




PMID- 28727744
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DA  - 20170720
DCOM- 20170801
LR  - 20170801
IS  - 1935-2735 (Electronic)
IS  - 1935-2727 (Linking)
VI  - 11
IP  - 7
DP  - 2017 Jul
TI  - Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.
PG  - e0005705
LID - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705 [doi]
AB  - Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus,
      which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native
      vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance
      of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS,
      but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS
      incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a
      Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane 
      expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the
      state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on
      historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning
      guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature
      anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5
      and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by
      IPCC). Currently, the state of Sao Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, 
      with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk
      (HCPS risk >/= 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will
      increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk.
      Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and
      1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane 
      and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only
      included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are
      likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease
      is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs
      that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change
      on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks
      obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop
      educational campaigns.
FAU - Prist, Paula Ribeiro
AU  - Prist PR
AUID- ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2809-0434
AD  - Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, 
      Sao Paulo, Brazil.
FAU - Uriarte, Maria
AU  - Uriarte M
AD  - Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology, Columbia University,
      New York, New York, United States of America.
FAU - Fernandes, Katia
AU  - Fernandes K
AD  - International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Earth Institute;
      Columbia University, Palisades, New York, United States of America.
FAU - Metzger, Jean Paul
AU  - Metzger JP
AD  - Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, 
      Sao Paulo, Brazil.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20170720
PL  - United States
TA  - PLoS Negl Trop Dis
JT  - PLoS neglected tropical diseases
JID - 101291488
SB  - IM
MH  - Agriculture
MH  - Animals
MH  - Bayes Theorem
MH  - Brazil/epidemiology
MH  - *Climate Change
MH  - Environmental Microbiology
MH  - Hantavirus
MH  - Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/mortality/*transmission
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Rodentia/*virology
MH  - Saccharum/*growth & development
EDAT- 2017/07/21 06:00
MHDA- 2017/08/02 06:00
CRDT- 2017/07/21 06:00
PHST- 2017/03/16 [received]
PHST- 2017/06/12 [accepted]
AID - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705 [doi]
AID - PNTD-D-17-00382 [pii]
PST - epublish
SO  - PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Jul 20;11(7):e0005705. doi:
      10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705. eCollection 2017 Jul.