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Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Malaria Epidemic in Mainland China, 2004-2014.

Abstract The purpose of this study is to characterize spatiotemporal heterogeneities in malaria distribution at a provincial level and investigate the association between malaria incidence and climate factors from 2004 to 2014 in China to inform current malaria control efforts. National malaria incidence peaked (4.6/100,000) in 2006 and decreased to a very low level (0.21/100,000) in 2014, and the proportion of imported cases increased from 16.2% in 2004 to 98.2% in 2014. Statistical analyses of global and local spatial autocorrelations and purely spatial scan statistics revealed that malaria was localized in Hainan, Anhui, and Yunnan during 2004-2009 and then gradually shifted and clustered in Yunnan after 2010. Purely temporal clusters shortened to less than 5 months during 2012-2014. The two most likely clusters detected using spatiotemporal analysis occurred in Anhui between July 2005 and November 2007 and Yunnan between January 2010 and June 2012. Correlation coefficients for the association between malaria incidence and climate factors sharply decreased after 2010, and there were zero-month lag effects for climate factors during 2010-2014. Overall, the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in China changed from relatively scattered (2004-2009) to relatively clustered (2010-2014). As the proportion of imported cases increased, the effect of climate factors on malaria incidence has gradually become weaker since 2011. Therefore, new warning systems should be applied to monitor resurgence and outbreaks of malaria in mainland China, and quarantine at borders should be reinforced to control the increasingly trend of imported malaria cases.
PMID
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Authors

Mayor MeshTerms

Geography

Seasons

Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Weather

Keywords
Journal Title the american journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
Publication Year Start




PMID- 28829728
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DA  - 20170822
DCOM- 20170911
LR  - 20170911
IS  - 1476-1645 (Electronic)
IS  - 0002-9637 (Linking)
VI  - 97
IP  - 2
DP  - 2017 Aug
TI  - Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Malaria Epidemic in Mainland China, 2004-2014.
PG  - 504-513
LID - 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711 [doi]
AB  - The purpose of this study is to characterize spatiotemporal heterogeneities in
      malaria distribution at a provincial level and investigate the association
      between malaria incidence and climate factors from 2004 to 2014 in China to
      inform current malaria control efforts. National malaria incidence peaked
      (4.6/100,000) in 2006 and decreased to a very low level (0.21/100,000) in 2014,
      and the proportion of imported cases increased from 16.2% in 2004 to 98.2% in
      2014. Statistical analyses of global and local spatial autocorrelations and
      purely spatial scan statistics revealed that malaria was localized in Hainan,
      Anhui, and Yunnan during 2004-2009 and then gradually shifted and clustered in
      Yunnan after 2010. Purely temporal clusters shortened to less than 5 months
      during 2012-2014. The two most likely clusters detected using spatiotemporal
      analysis occurred in Anhui between July 2005 and November 2007 and Yunnan between
      January 2010 and June 2012. Correlation coefficients for the association between 
      malaria incidence and climate factors sharply decreased after 2010, and there
      were zero-month lag effects for climate factors during 2010-2014. Overall, the
      spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in China changed from relatively scattered
      (2004-2009) to relatively clustered (2010-2014). As the proportion of imported
      cases increased, the effect of climate factors on malaria incidence has gradually
      become weaker since 2011. Therefore, new warning systems should be applied to
      monitor resurgence and outbreaks of malaria in mainland China, and quarantine at 
      borders should be reinforced to control the increasingly trend of imported
      malaria cases.
FAU - Huang, Qiang
AU  - Huang Q
AD  - Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical
      Disease Research, and Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging
      Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, School of Public Health,
      Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
FAU - Hu, Lin
AU  - Hu L
AD  - Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical
      Disease Research, and Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging
      Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, School of Public Health,
      Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
FAU - Liao, Qi-Bin
AU  - Liao QB
AD  - Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical
      Disease Research, and Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging
      Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, School of Public Health,
      Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
FAU - Xia, Jing
AU  - Xia J
AD  - Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical
      Disease Research, and Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging
      Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, School of Public Health,
      Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
FAU - Wang, Qian-Ru
AU  - Wang QR
AD  - Department of Atmospheric Science, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu
      University of Information Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
FAU - Peng, Hong-Juan
AU  - Peng HJ
AD  - Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical
      Disease Research, and Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging
      Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, School of Public Health,
      Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - United States
TA  - Am J Trop Med Hyg
JT  - The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
JID - 0370507
SB  - AIM
SB  - IM
MH  - China/epidemiology
MH  - Disease Outbreaks/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Epidemics/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - *Geography
MH  - Humans
MH  - Incidence
MH  - Malaria/*epidemiology
MH  - *Seasons
MH  - *Spatio-Temporal Analysis
MH  - *Weather
EDAT- 2017/08/23 06:00
MHDA- 2017/09/12 06:00
CRDT- 2017/08/23 06:00
AID - 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2017 Aug;97(2):504-513. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711.